- CreditCards are potentially bearish for me (Visa, MasterCard + American Express),
MasterCard chart posted allready as short candiate earlier but this entire business group itself is not very attempting for me either. With this group MasterCard is still as short candidate for me.
UK retail warnings potentially helped to make bearish action for credit cards on last session.
Tesco from UK gave warning and also smashed their other retail names down pretty heavily.
(I heard some rumours Buffett actually bought that Tesco drop).
- But I am still bullish with SOX/SMH names from US + with many other markets index than SPX itself, so far it has also worked very well this way where SPX underperforms all the time. Inside of SPX it is more equity selective one and there is also some material I keep as bearish candidates including COG also.
Long/Short Hedge / Pairtrading swing market for me but in US I still cannot skip the SOX Wave3 risk to be without it fully and not bearish any of it´s names for this reason but I try to keep some shorts on there all the time against of longs. Mastercard is one of them and actually US is the only market where I am looking short candidates at all since it is more passive than other´s.
After most of the large cap names Q reports starts to be over, market have habit to take corrections, where it might reach 1240-1260 territory is my thought but earnings season is still running. Perhaps month change might change some degree for this.
Before that happens I think one much smaller can take down, then higher again till earnings end.
After that, there might be correction but when market have several positive sessions behind without much pause, it also raises the question what waves only can do something like that at all. On the other hand January-March usually have been positive at the market place.
On last year it also stopped for that, end of March.
However, I would like to explode a bit everyone´s mind who are extraordinary bearish with these markets all over the board with every single name as I saw this chart to suggest to short it from one resourche who has been bearish with this market for several months and decided to add 2 different possible wave scenarions for it and skip all the small small degree points.
Are you so sure 2012-2015 are going to bearish ?
Disclaimer: Underwrite do not have own single DowJones Stocks or have any plans to purchase any.
Stock to watch as weekly chart turning candidate but with question mark: HPQ ?
Other large size SOX/NDX names I like:
Xerox, XRX, JDS Uniphase, JDSU, Xilinx, XLNX, Apple AAPL, Symantec, SYMC
Apple chart is pretty run but I do not find reasons from real world much why it should be bearish, with PE multiply under 11, while 4S is heavily sold phone and dominates one part from the higher segment. Recently in China they were forced to close the apple store for security reason because there was too many buyers trying to get it in to buy it, x-mas is just behind and I-pad might be driving the grow.
Average analyst expect company to earn 40 billion $ during the next 2 year which raises it´s cash level for lofty 120 $ billion from current 80 $ billion. Only reason why it doesn´t pay any dividents is because all that money is located aboard and if doing so Apple should transfer it to US first and pay -35% corporation tax in US before before paying divident for shareholders which is more than unlikely to happen.
That profit estimate is not over-optimistic if tablet computers are becoming to be next thing now as it seems and might be even under-estimated how common product it will become between consumers.
Apple have egosystem edge with their devices while they all replicates between each other easily and windows devices marketshare has not started yet to develop.
For instance from mobilephones segment windows markethsare is 2% yet while Gartner estimates it will grow up to the 15% by 2015 (which might be undervalued).
A question might be what happens for Android actually when Windows will hit the market. Many Corporations will likely prefer to use Windows OS between all devices while many consumers has fallen love to easy-to-use IOS.
The next I-pad will be released in a few months time with higher screen resolutions as one feature.
Apple also have 3 operators deals nows in US while they used to be only one plus their older models still sells well for less budget consumers and expands it potential users.
It is a bit i-everything in these days:
My long term strategy for this is actually to skip RIMM (Is this next PALM actually ?) and Android but stay long with Windows / Apple, both because only these 2 have entire ego-system to offer.
From windows phones my pick-up is Nokia during this spring.
Yet I don´t think it is time to look at it however where my January long with it was just seasonal / technical bounce play from oversold condinitions but next small impulse for downside if it will be seen during the winter/spring I am starting to look at it more closely, which I hope would lead for one new lower low yet.
Difference is however pure cash ie. margins, it is difficult and propably impossible for anyone else ever to beat Apple´s margin levels and it is just pure marketshare game between 2 or 3 giants + their sub-contractors / alliances (Windows).
I am suspicious how Android will survive on future in this game, it has went well for them so far but might become to change year later.
Positive thing is that actual total units sold from both devices: mobile phones and tablets likely keep growing rather than staying fixed & balanced.
Great old German song for Daimler & BMW Capital gains;
Not much new to add but potentially expecting to see slow / passive / small negative session to start the new week while not counting it for much.
Silver is also one think I am looking as long side.
