US Treasure Bonds - Too Run ?


Is it possible to EW something like, perhaps only afterwards and perhaps unlikely to offer or do anything easy ever but I see reasonable strong negative divergences. Not very strong but strong however.

The B is ~86.2% RET from the impulse peak which is one of the most common retracement size for EW B wave suggesting with reverse that impulse is not travelling further, at least before correction.

C/IV to come like 50 % ?

There has been a few bigcap stocks which have had these kind of negative divergences, where it one day looks alike very ideal shorting area but in strong impulses they have also tendecy to respond down only slightly if they are corrections only, afterwards often next impulse just takes it again higher where oscillators quickly turns as bullish again. For instance IBM and INTC today shows that even it looks a one moment that danger correction might become, after a few session or week it is just gone allready while price quickly reverses the oscillators and correction leaves reasonable nill by size. Autozone and Autonation shares has also seen this behaviour where negative divergence has lead only for correction and not the direction itself 

IBM took a lilttle correction for instance to the downside before reporting but as mentioned it later it started to look very weak and I covered it after -8% drop or so while entire correction was perhaps -15% by size. 

Intel for instance never even didn´t park or pause more than during a few days only while it has been one of the best perfomer today after reporting to lead it just to the new highs.

One thing is just to look the valuation, is it way too high and in the cases where it is not like with IBM or INTC it might give a hint correction might leave reasonable small meaning there is higher degree running and it´s just too early to try to end it.

But with bonds, such a proxy is not much exist where to compare it at all. Even it would yield 0% which is not far away some institutional money might think that they would rather just keep their money somewhere when it keeps it original PO even it would not pay much for them ever.

A few weeks ago German did sold bonds with negative yieldings ie. investors paid for German government that they did accept their investment at all and there was more buyers for it than bonds available. 

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