Nokia,

They are trying hard to get attention & also younger image now. This is from London / UK



I haven been researching this area a lot recently but it might take a few weeks from me to come up with a thoughts I ended with where it does lead at the end or where it is going now-on but many names might be under real danger now in the long run if not understanding this correctly where this area is heading from here.

Btw. Nokia is going to open Nokia NightClub in my city, will be opened in a few months time ;)

Saturday Post,

Netflix, Short Long Story to learn with ElliottWave,

I took NFLX long (after they reported earnings), not before, why ?

Because it´s weekly chart has reached max. W2 retracement and daily chart was building it a impulse wave which I did wait that it won´t be a zigzag wave. 

I did watch it´s recovery phase for long how it is going to do it, with zigzag or impulse.

Without going all the deep issues related for the company (A dead lot have to went correctly for them to become global & dominant player and there is troubles, like margins potentially ahead) and there is too many issues with it starting from tangible assetts and certainly need to raise more cash to become global in this field.

I just faced it like this:

There have to a be a lot of things wrong that chart is capable to reach elliott wave 2 max. bottom as public have to be super bearish with it, with this size degree (weekly chart).

If you do deal with wave2 lows, you are there alone - there isn´t no-one home.

Also I don´t believe something dead boring as WallMart will enter for this area as competitor, WMT is only local poor boy shop available only in US - if one want to destroy your brand or deal with low-end customers only, deal with it. It belongs for totally different customer segment.

Amazon is of cource question, which btw. start to be WallMart of the Net also > boring but works.

Bring the Tv for 2012 x-mas sale.

http://www.apple.com/appletv/

http://www.boxee.tv/

http://www.businessinsider.com/boxee-live-tv-update-2012-1

NFLX: If you are interested from this high risk name you might want to look if there is another degree W2 (ABC) change for it during the winter / spring but so far I think it just changed even for more agressive wave.


Mining,


Marked potential waves for it.

If they will jump a bit further, do not be surprized...


Mining, Oil, Gold, Silver + Commodity Stocks,

 Good days keeps coming. It was actually silent in Europe expect Greece which jump again +5% ;). 

Mining - place to be with FED but also place to be for some time I think.

Apple PE is now 10 with 450 $, it is very correctly priced I think. 

Premium range could be PE 10-12, meaning the most secure exit for earnings call was 450 $ but it could still trade slightly higher & stay with-in this valuation range. Best part however might be done.

Nickel : ZigZag correction down behind and RSI is overbought  

===> 

We do work with impulse waves for upside.

I think there is still summer days ahead, with mining, commodity and oil stocks, particulary.

But I highlight the word "stocks" rather than actual physical commodities.




Apple,

How Apple Integrates Between World Best Brand And how they all integrates between each other,


Watch these: 





Mobile means mobile also while driving,

BMW i-drive joystick and i-phone & i-tablet integrates to the car itself.

It is not extra acceccory. 

For instance you can start the engine, turn on the lights, cool / warm / air seats and air inside the car without being inside of your car with your i-phone. Some of these features are coming while some of them are allready available while some of them have been on the market allready some time.

BMW realized this well on time with integrated i-drive joystick which fits so well for term "i".

Several brands have integrated solution in their cars for I-phone & I-pad and in future more than ever:

- Porche
- Jaguar
- Daimler
- BMW
- Volvo
- Audi

One quickly realizes they are all either high-end or luxury brands.

Many of these names are also the one´s who have expressed positive messages, reached targeted sales revenues, raised earnings & dividents with very conflicting macro-picture.

(Bmw and Daimler for instance).

ie. the world most high-end brands in their own field. 

With actual apple accessories which are not so deeply integrated there is more of them like Toyota but also more some regular brands allready where it is integrated allready like Wolswagen.

What about portability for walkers / travellers / home use, B & O from Denmark,

http://www.beoplay.com/#videos


Harman Kardon (HAR) is one another example who also happens to be audio integrator for Daimer cars as well as for some of these new brands from Asia & India.

 Best producs / brands prefer to deal only with other best products / brands:



How the new product life-cycle works in allmost every area and cars are not exception in the manner. 

The same way as in Fashion Indursty. 

High End Brands do all expensive innovation & re-search & developmentand tests. 

As a final result then brings the "new thing" for consumers.

In many cases they are first expensive extra-charged accessories just like ABS breakes, Car Air Condinition or even the Car CD station was. They all sound stupid simple today and belongs to every single car. 

Cars were just aluminium baskets with 4 wheels and engine, that´s about it. Everything in it since is result of new and expensive innovation & re-search but if you compare them today between each other, allmost all same new features are much later found from each of them between any manufacturers while at early stage the latest features belongs only for more expensive one´s.

It just happens & takes place first between the luxury makers which have better designers & also often much more lofty re-search & development budgets. 

What happens later is that all the secondary and much less high-end product manufacturers realize this afterwards and want to add same thing while it has been tested allready by higher-end manufacturers and their consumers. At this stage this "feature" price has allready stalled to the level where more consumers can afford it also, it becomes less espensive or there is less espensive version available for less expensive brands.

The result by then is: We have new standard. 

Just a thought partly, somewhere between these 2 cycles I think Apple is now while it is breaking very succesfully for all kind of equipments as integrated solution like cars.

Home / building solutions next ? Then it covers technology indoor and outdoor. 

I-pad´s from kids school to university to replace books. 

Next would be offices / corporations, naturally.

There is 3 dominant trends:

1. BYOD ie. Bring and Work With Your Own Device for your employer.

2. Younger Generation who did accept i-phone first are the one´s who decides on future IT purchases at corporations but also parents devices.

3. One Apple device holder will change for another apple, likely which drives also Mac sales because of ego-system / OSI / integration benefit.

The next updates are not cosmetic one´s while perhaps i4s was a bit:

February-March i-pad3

April: All MacBooks are fully re-launched

During the summer/autumn: i-Phone5 

(i-Phone 5 potentially might have face recognition based for Apple patents applications ie. no-one cannot steal it from you / use it.) 

Autumn; Potentially Apple TV 

Any surprizes ?

Future looks good for Apple but it also appears to look good for the one´s who have been following this path offering it´s ports & integrated devices for it.

They are not crappy product manufacturers, either.

MobilePhones,

- Nokia down: -8% in Europe after Texas Instrument disappointing slightly in their particular sub-sector (this concerns however their older models, not the latest windows phones).

- Rimm down -5% after yesterday -8% drop. 

(RIMM new CEO in CNBC was very disappointment as he didn´t provide any kind of strategy change)

Question: Who will benefit from this situation if any ?

Apple.

Overall, not core changes for my portofolio during this week but I changed my speculative Greece long for Italy "IndexBasket" 

(I prefer to have something more risky all the time).

I also left Marvell (MRVL) swing, it hasn´t change anywhere and it is flat, even today also but it also denies to respond any for me.

Correction day,

Licence to (kill) go down is given from European Markets and I don´t think US disagree with it.


Somewhat moderate % changes, however but Greece took 1/3 of my profits away, propably ;).



Italy,

Same thing as in German.

If has took 5 wave up allready.

Waves A or 1 > Waves B or 2 > Waves C or 3.

Where in simple ABC  > A = C by price if it is only correction.

Then, if it is W3 as it can be it would suggest x1.618 size price.

Good buy bottom ? Call Ferrari - it´s IPO time. 


Kalimera !

+5 % ! 

Still long with it.

Austria wasn´t so far away with allmost +4 % day change.

ANR,

Spelulative Swing.

Thyssen Group & Outokumpu deal might expand speculation of due dilligence in the entire indursty.

Gas reversal,

Looks alike they are done for moment.

COG, CHK, CNQ + Denbury etc. names might be under little buying program during this week.

Well, that was last sector which was selling the lows / abandon to rally with global markets.

I am long with CHK.

Sunday Post,

- CreditCards are potentially bearish for me (Visa, MasterCard + American Express),
MasterCard chart posted allready as short candiate earlier but this entire business group itself is not very attempting for me either. With this group MasterCard is still as short candidate for me.

UK retail warnings potentially helped to make bearish action for credit cards on last session.

Tesco from UK gave warning and also smashed their other retail names down pretty heavily.

(I heard some rumours Buffett actually bought that Tesco drop). 

- But I am still bullish with SOX/SMH names from US + with many other markets index than SPX itself, so far it has also worked very well this way where SPX underperforms all the time. Inside of SPX it is more equity selective one and there is also some material I keep as bearish candidates including COG also. 

Long/Short Hedge / Pairtrading swing market for me but in US I still cannot skip the SOX Wave3 risk to be without it fully and not bearish any of it´s names for this reason but I try to keep some shorts on there all the time against of longs. Mastercard is one of them and actually US is the only market where I am looking short candidates at all since it is more passive than other´s.

After most of the large cap names Q reports starts to be over, market have habit to take corrections, where it might reach 1240-1260 territory is my thought but earnings season is still running. Perhaps month change might change some degree for this. 

Before that happens I think one much smaller can take down, then higher again till earnings end. 

After that, there might be correction but when market have several positive sessions behind without much pause, it also raises the question what waves only can do something like that at all. On the other hand January-March usually have been positive at the market place. 

On last year it also stopped for that, end of March. 

However, I would like to explode a bit everyone´s mind who are extraordinary bearish with these markets all over the board with every single name as I saw this chart to suggest to short it from one resourche who has been bearish with this market for several months and decided to add 2 different possible wave scenarions for it and skip all the small small degree points.

Are you so sure 2012-2015 are going to bearish ?

Disclaimer: Underwrite do not have own single DowJones Stocks or have any plans to purchase any.

Stock to watch as weekly chart turning candidate but with question mark: HPQ ?

Other large size SOX/NDX names I like: 

Xerox, XRX, JDS Uniphase, JDSU, Xilinx, XLNX, Apple AAPL, Symantec, SYMC

Apple chart is pretty run but I do not find reasons from real world much why it should be bearish, with PE multiply under 11, while 4S is heavily sold phone and dominates one part from the higher segment. Recently in China they were forced to close the apple store for security reason because there was too many buyers trying to get it in to buy it, x-mas is just behind and I-pad might be driving the grow. 

Average analyst expect company to earn 40 billion $ during the next 2 year which raises it´s cash level for lofty 120 $ billion from current 80 $ billion. Only reason why it doesn´t pay any dividents is because all that money is located aboard and if doing so Apple should transfer it to US first and pay -35% corporation tax in US before before paying divident for shareholders which is more than unlikely to happen. 

That profit estimate is not over-optimistic if tablet computers are becoming to be next thing now as it seems and might be even under-estimated how common product it will become between consumers. 

Apple have egosystem edge with their devices while they all replicates between each other easily and windows devices marketshare has not started yet to develop. 

For instance from mobilephones segment windows markethsare is 2% yet while Gartner estimates it will grow up to the 15% by 2015 (which might be undervalued).

A question might be what happens for Android actually when Windows will hit the market. Many Corporations will likely prefer to use Windows OS between all devices while many consumers has fallen love to easy-to-use IOS. 

The next I-pad will be released in a few months time with higher screen resolutions as one feature.

Apple also have 3 operators deals nows in US while they used to be only one plus their older models still sells well for less budget consumers and expands it potential users. 

It is a bit i-everything in these days:

http://www.ihealth99.com/

http://ibabylabs.com/

http://itunes.apple.com/app/isuper-heli/id428847644?mt=8

My long term strategy for this is actually to skip RIMM (Is this next PALM actually ?) and Android but stay long with Windows / Apple, both because only these 2 have entire ego-system to offer. 

From windows phones my pick-up is Nokia during this spring. 

Yet I don´t think it is time to look at it however where my January long with it was just seasonal / technical bounce play from oversold condinitions but next small impulse for downside if it will be seen during the winter/spring I am starting to look at it more closely, which I hope would lead for one new lower low yet.

Difference is however pure cash ie. margins, it is difficult and propably impossible for anyone else ever to beat Apple´s margin levels and it is just pure marketshare game between 2 or 3 giants + their sub-contractors / alliances (Windows). 

I am suspicious how Android will survive on future in this game, it has went well for them so far but might become to change year later.

Positive thing is that actual total units sold from both devices: mobile phones and tablets likely keep growing rather than staying fixed & balanced.

Great old German song for Daimler & BMW Capital gains;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6W51gDVMjxo&list=FLe5x45ikamqh46vApMy6MGw&index=2&feature=plpp_video

Not much new to add but potentially expecting to see slow / passive / small negative session to start the new week while not counting it for much. 

Silver is also one think I am looking as long side.








US Treasure Bonds - Too Run ?


Is it possible to EW something like, perhaps only afterwards and perhaps unlikely to offer or do anything easy ever but I see reasonable strong negative divergences. Not very strong but strong however.

The B is ~86.2% RET from the impulse peak which is one of the most common retracement size for EW B wave suggesting with reverse that impulse is not travelling further, at least before correction.

C/IV to come like 50 % ?

There has been a few bigcap stocks which have had these kind of negative divergences, where it one day looks alike very ideal shorting area but in strong impulses they have also tendecy to respond down only slightly if they are corrections only, afterwards often next impulse just takes it again higher where oscillators quickly turns as bullish again. For instance IBM and INTC today shows that even it looks a one moment that danger correction might become, after a few session or week it is just gone allready while price quickly reverses the oscillators and correction leaves reasonable nill by size. Autozone and Autonation shares has also seen this behaviour where negative divergence has lead only for correction and not the direction itself 

IBM took a lilttle correction for instance to the downside before reporting but as mentioned it later it started to look very weak and I covered it after -8% drop or so while entire correction was perhaps -15% by size. 

Intel for instance never even didn´t park or pause more than during a few days only while it has been one of the best perfomer today after reporting to lead it just to the new highs.

One thing is just to look the valuation, is it way too high and in the cases where it is not like with IBM or INTC it might give a hint correction might leave reasonable small meaning there is higher degree running and it´s just too early to try to end it.

But with bonds, such a proxy is not much exist where to compare it at all. Even it would yield 0% which is not far away some institutional money might think that they would rather just keep their money somewhere when it keeps it original PO even it would not pay much for them ever.

A few weeks ago German did sold bonds with negative yieldings ie. investors paid for German government that they did accept their investment at all and there was more buyers for it than bonds available. 

Whirlpool,


Exiting days keeps coming.

Not so dramatic with SPX proxy index itself which advanced only moderate 1,1% yesterday and +0,4% today but between the equities it has been more exiting also in US, particulary SOX / SMH has been under interest while Bank´s not so far away.

With these shy % changes SPX destiny is actually to be world worse market performer index over January from all western markets. US has not threat very well IndexBasket investor during this year if comparing it for peer groups where most exiting things has happened in Europe and elsewhere.

However, in the world where everything correlates between each other I don´t think it might have chances to take any dramatic corrections while our & other markets are bullish.

From SPX500 index Pulte Homes and Lennart has triple-digit gains in US and for me it seems home construction cycle has changed over the passed 6 months in US or then someone believes so, I am not so much fan of  home builders because the are very highly cyclical all over the world but I do believe renovation & fixing cycle in this area might be one to look at. That´s the situation at least in Europe where many of our cities (buildings & houses) were build at the same time and between 2010-2020 many of them needs to be fixed all at the same time.

I assume home kitchen equipment furnitures are going to do so also, thats´why I have Whirlpool which have number 1 marketshare in US while Samsung, Miele, LG, Siemens etc. dominates elsewhere.

It is just regular PE-9 priced stock, yields about 4% but weekly chart can be W2 bottom.

Company reports by early of February.

Other than than I have some of those SOX names from US, Autodesk is one of them where I do hope it is under Wave3.

SOX also has been best performing index during this week in US which is something new and interesting since many of those names are responding from the lows while NDX itself beats the SPX slightly and potentially has done now succesfull break-out.

At least divergences with this break-out are not negative to give a hint of failure

(attatched the lowest chart).

The most risky is Greece but I do believe that market is going to bounce as well from here.

I would expect European markets to beat US market index products in % terms also in near future.

In fact it opens even a several pairtrade possibilities, SPX is so slow. 



Emerging Markets,

The risk might become way above average once targeted areas reached, this is because the movement downside was also impulsive by nature - for which reason it opens W2 possibility some day (not for some time I assume) but it is also possible we are just leaving the bottom with daily chart degree as simple ABC correction like that. 

Bull !

But only in Europe and particulary in North Europe driven by weak euro which offers competitive pricing for our export companies.

Finland, Sweden and Denmark ie. Scandinavia, all together has now took world best markets status from month period in the top5 list while German belongs to group.


The difference is that our markets didn´t participate for Autumn 2011 recover at all, so these responses comes the actual ATL real low. 

It´s very different kind of world in here indeed if comparing it for US market in these days.

During this week we have seen first positive profit warnings because of weak Euro.

What you see is that industrial export names are mostly bought.

(Most or actually allmost all of our listed equities are industrial & export based companies).


Euro - Trying to Recover,

Europe was downgraded but did that actually only finished the low for some time ?

Europe was bullish today where parrticulary companies who do export did rally. 

Once again, the most strong gains were seen in Nordic Territory (the export territory).

Uber busy week ahead in US to which I am entering with pretty neutral minds, I have MSFT but I am slightly carefull with Intel, it looks a toppy for me as 5 five.

Earnings Expectations for the Week of January 16th, 2012 

Wells Fargo 

When this San Francisco-based lender releases its fourth-quarter results Tuesday morning, it is expected to say that earnings rose from $0.61 per share a year ago to $0.72. That estimate has not changed over the past 60 days. And for the full year, analysts expect earnings to have risen 21.6% to $2.82 per share. Note that Wells Fargo earnings have not fallen short of consensus estimates in the past ten quarters. In the three months that ended in December, Wells Fargo completed conversion of its remaining Wachovia branches, and it was voted number one in customer satisfaction. Revenues for the fourth quarter, however, are predicted to have decreased 6.6% to $20.1 billion, and to have fallen 5.4% for the full year to $80.6 billion. The share price is up almost 15% in the past month, rising above resistance at $27 it had faced since August. The stock has outperformed peers Bank of America, Citigroup and JP Morgan over the past six months. 


Goldman Sachs 

Analysts are looking for this New York bank to report Wednesday morning that its per-share earnings declined 67.3% year over year to $1.24. And full-year earnings are forecast to have fallen 63.3% to $4.84 per share. Both EPS forecasts have been falling over the past 90 days. And for the fourth quarter during which the company expanded the number of its board members, revenues are expected to total $6.5 billion. That would be a 24.3% decrease from a year ago. Full-year revenues are expected to have fallen 23.1% to $30.1 billion. Note that Goldman’s earnings fell short of estimates in the previous two quarters, after topping them in the three quarters before that. The share price is up 5.9% in the past week but still 41.6% lower than a year ago. Over the past six months, the stock has underperformed competitors Citigroup and JP Morgan and the broader markets. 

Morgan Stanley 

During the three months that ended in December, this financial holding company reached a settlement with MBIA (NYSE:MBI) over mortgage-backed securities and announced the sale of Saxon Mortgage Services. On Thursday morning, Morgan Stanley is expected to post a net loss of $0.57 per share and revenues of $5.6 billion for that period. That compares to $0.43 per share earnings and $7.8 billion in the year-ago quarter. Analysts also expect full-year EPS to have fallen 66.4% to $0.82 per share and revenues to be up 2.8% to $32.5 billion. Both fourth-quarter and full-year EPS estimates have been falling over the past 60 days. But analysts have underestimated Morgan Stanley’s earnings results in the past four quarters. The share price has increased 9.6% in the past month, but it is still 40.7% lower than a year ago. And over the past six months, the stock has just managed to outperform competitor Goldman Sachs. 

Here’s quick rundown of what analysts expect for earnings from some of the many banks and other financial firms reporting quarterly results this week. 

* American Express (NYSE: AXP): EPS up 10.2% to $0.98 (reports Thursday) 
* Bancfirst (NYSE: BANF): EPS down 2.7% to $0.73 (reports Tuesday) 
* Bank of America (NYSE: BAC): EPS up 82.6% to $0.23 (reports Thursday) 
* Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK): EPS down 10.2% to $0.53 (reports Wednesday) 
* Bank of the Ozarks (NYSE: OZRK): EPS down 0.2% to $0.49 (reports Tuesday) 
* BB&T (NYSE: BBT): EPS up 43.3% to $0.53 (reports Thursday) 
* Blackrock (NYSE: BLK): EPS down 11.9% to $3.01 (reports Tuesday) 
* Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF): EPS up 1.9% to $1.55 (reports Thursday) 
* Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW): EPS up 23.1% to $0.13 (reports Wednesday) 
* Citigroup (NYSE: C): EPS up 18.4% to $0.49 (reports Tuesday) 
* City National (NYSE: CYN): EPS up 10.8% to $0.83 (reports Thursday) 
* Comerica (NYSE: CMA): EPS down 11.3% to $0.47 (reports Friday) 
* Community Trust Bancorp (NYSE: CTBI): EPS up 7.7% to $0.65 (reports Wednesday) 
* Fifth Third (NYSE: FITB): EPS up 8.3% to $0.36 (reports Friday) 
* First Horizon National (NYSE: FHN): swings from a year-ago loss to $0.14 EPS (reports Friday) 
* First Republic Bank (NYSE: FRC): EPS up 9.1% to $0.66 (reports Tuesday) 
* Huntington Bancshares (NYSE: HBAN): EPS up 64.3% to $0.14 (reports Thursday) 
* M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB): EPS down 8.2% to $1.46 (reports Tuesday) 
* Northern Trust (NYSE: NTRS): EPS up 13.2% to $0.68 (reports Wednesday) 
* People’s United Financial (NYSE: PBCT): EPS up 47.4% to $0.19 (reports Thursday) 
* PNC Financial Services (NYSE: PNC): EPS down 6.0% to $1.41 (reports Wednesday) 
* Prosperity Bancshares (NYSE: PB): EPS up 7.9% to $0.76 (reports Friday) 
* SLM (NYSE: SLM): EPS down 34.7% to $0.49 (reports Wednesday) 
* State Street (NYSE: STT): EPS up 7.4% to $0.94 (reports Wednesday) 
* Suntrust Banks (NYSE: STI): EPS up 14.8% to $0.27 (reports Friday) 
* US Bancorp (NYSE: USB): EPS up 22.2% to $0.63 (reports Wednesday) 
* WestAmerica BanCorp (NYSE: WABC): EPS down 2.5% to $0.79 (reports Thursday) 

Of course, it will not only be financial companies reporting this week. Here is quick look at what analysts estimate for earnings in just a few of the most prominent of this week’s other quarterly reports. 

* eBay (NYSE: EBAY): EPS up 8.8% to $0.57 (reports Wednesday) 
* Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX): EPS down 60.7% to $0.64 (reports Thursday) 
* General Electric (NYSE: GE): EPS up 7.9% to $0.38 (reports Friday) 
* Google (NASDAQ: GOOG): EPS up 16.5% to $10.48 (reports Thursday) 
* IBM (NYSE: IBM): EPS up 9.5% to $4.62 (reports Thursday) 
* Intel (NYSE: INTC): EPS up 3.3% to $0.61 (reports Thursday) 
* Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT): EPS down 1.3% to $0.76 (reports Thursday) 
* Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB): EPS up 22.0% to $1.09 (reports Friday) 
* Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV): EPS down 87.5% to $0.08 (reports Thursday) 
* Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP): EPS up 13.8% to $1.81 (reports Thursday) 
* UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH): EPS down 1.9% to $1.03 (reports Thursday)

Poland,


Europe is oversold territory. 


Italy,


Buy Italy and forget you own it. There is impulse behind. 

Either AB > C wave for 50% RET for instance or then.......things were way overdone.....



Siemens, DAX,

The reason why it is lazy market, but still act as bullish in Mid-Europe.

I do estimate we approch there at some stage at Eastern 2012. 

(Chart is Zoomed Out to present entire impulse).

Why it cannot be allready IV wave where I marked the A wave and do 1-2 in here to be ready to drop potential fifth wave impulse for it while IV wave left it for 50% RET ?

Because A wave was internally impulse it cannot be IV wave - which is the same case with all DAX equities. 

For the same reason it also creates for it bullish alternate as Waves 1 and 2. 

Index at silent CrossRoads,

But nice conflict still acts between the assetts still acts. 

For instance HIG, GS, MS, BAC ie. kind of Mr. Paulson financials are somewhat building upside momentum with sideways patterns which can be of cource be IV waves also but if so, they can be also relative time consuming one´s if considering what kind of drop there is behind and it is bit difficult to see them very bearish for this reason either. There is many other options exist but divergences itself suggest still more the longside.

In theory, if they drop some, it would quickly come as five wave downside while in here they abandon to do so instead +5% rally day behind with bullish divergence trying to survive and keep above SMA50 green road.

It´s very conflicting market on there which also makes it very sideways market while biggest part of the capital gains are mostly priced at the opening bells and with-in first hour in US.

Bull in Europe but perhaps little less in US behind, our markets did rocket up +2.6% and Frankfurt as well. Weakening Euro boost our Export ?

Fundamendally, one might have difficulties to crack our some of our shares for downside unless macropicture is really not going to change much more dramatically. 

For instance Daimler is going to close record sales from 2011 and offers also additional divident for shareholders (likely) + extrabonus for all employees, the messages from BMW are very similiar and they do not see difference for this year either instead to be still on the track to reach +10% sales revenue ramp, again. 

Even the Daimler trucks division sales has seen boosted sales figures from 2011. 

Daimler pays +40% from their corporate profits for shareholders every year.

We are doing great, from the middle part ie. German, the lower the Euro goes with time, the better boost it does for our Export based indursty and it is all based for export.

It´s just the different issue when and where the market does see it this way, now it appears to see it that way as cause while 6 months ago it was freaked out the same cause.

Goldman Weekly Chart,

The last man as strongest one standing ?

What if it is weekly Wave3 for 2012-2013 ?

Sunday Post,


I deleted that saturday Broadcom post after doing a bit re-search for I didn´t find reasons enough for the cake. However attatched some tired charts, one of them is also IBM and very similar one´s are Wallmart and Exxon Mobile but no extreme divergences available either, it is more like "momentum has left the building" issue, techically..

I think IBM is might heading to test SMA200. 

ROK, MA and COST I keep as shorting candidates while MSFT, MRVL and AAPL still as long side meaning I still believe best behaviour index is NDX if anything while Dow might be even slightly bearish and SPX in the middle denies to make significant movements. It is standing at the undirectional crossroad, perhaps waiting whetever new QE will come or not.

9 Issues I can disclose.

- Bullish with MRVL, MSFT and AAPL

- Bearish with COST, ROK and MA

- Small fifth up for Oil Futures with Hourly chart.

- Best Index is NDX

- Worse Index is Dow

- SPX something between, potentially shortterm toppy.

- Europe, not directional edge available

- Small bounce for UNG

- Perhaps very small zigzag bounce in Euro after five wave down done while 1.20 could be seen during the spring and possible even slightly more or perhaps I should say should be seen if looking weekly Macd for it.

About everything else or most of the equities, I do not see much directional edge or even interest to keep looking any because I think it is very much waiting game which might mean sideways action mostly. Once and if it solves significantly some week or even month it will bring out the issues what market have with equities if there is even any exist with EW. 

Many European based equities has started to suggest longer term sideways pattern building which hopefully is not the case because it would bring us for very undirectional market for long time.

Have a succesfull week.






Barnes & Noble,

Cut its Nook sales forecast for this year and shocked investors by saying it was considering a sale of the electronic reader and tablet business, sending its shares down more than 20 percent. 

That was stockstory of the day and it´s chart indeed does not suggest to be bottom fisher.

I think it was oversold stocks bounce relief day where Bank of America and Nokia were some of the biggest gainers. 

As planned I am seller for for Nokia if third big time rally will be seen yet - either this week or next one, I would exit allready today my long with this second day +9% rally but my shares are from Europe and our markets were allready closed, so that´s the plan for tomorrow in Europe, potentially but I am not hurry with it actually, can keep it for next week if tomorrow will be flat.

I also took profits from rest of the MittalSteel and closed US Molycorp and Braskem because volume never didn´t come there to be interested - 2 second one´s went pretty much ZeroFlat and MittalSteel gains left pretty much what it did gave during the first day of the year.

CL futures 1H and 4H chart does not have very major bearish divergence but I think it might do one small ABC correction in here where one impulse looks for my eyes to be pretty much done but divergences itself are as flat as any dailychart on there giving no much edge for it and particulary it can be still under conflict with next higher degrees which is impulse pointing higher yet over the spring, meaning to trade something like that would become extreme nasty because I don´t think it is fully done.

If that´s the case, then this daily chart 61.8% retracement  overllapped slightly with this fifth wave so far. If it takes even small correction I don´t think any commodity related stock will be bullish and I might take profits from Alcoa also for a moment which leaves MSFT and MRVL to be my largest positions left which I do not have plans to sell anymore for some time. Got to be long with something.

It´s silly market we have, but still threats somewhat Ok.

Euro ended for new low but looks alike market start to be bored for it and no-one cares anymore.

For Asian market I am a bit long with Euro actually with 1.2780, I think we are a bit overdone in here and for some reason I don´t think tomorrow will be very bearish for it in Europe but it is just more bounce hunting than any kind of proxy investment.





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